Market Commentary2019-10-25T08:09:55-08:00


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Is The Recession Over? | June 2020 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 broke several records, including the fastest recession in the history of the US*. In our most recent webinar titled, “Is The Recession Over?”, we take a look at the key indicators we are watching to determine if the recession has

Does the S&P 500 Have the COVID-19 Antibody?

Time to Read: 7 Minutes The US unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression. Manufacturing activity plunged to an 11-year low. The Leading Economic Index posted the largest decline in its 60-year history. Full-year earnings estimates have tumbled downward across all sectors. While

The Recession Has Arrived—Now What?

Time to Read: 6 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 continues to smash records. Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled a breathtaking 6.606 million, well above consensus estimates of 4.500 million and just barely below the record-setting 6.867 million claims recorded the week before, as shown below. Over

Fast-Moving Bear Market Triggers Portfolio Rebalancing

Time to Read: 6 Minutes Five short weeks ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs—then everything changed. As the novel coronavirus began establishing a foothold in countries around the world, US stocks entered bear market territory with record-setting speed. In this article, we look at the current

Markets Continue to Slide Despite Fed’s Surprise Rate Cut

Time to Read: 7 minutes On March 3rd, the Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1% and 1.25%. In its first intermeeting cut since 2008, the committee noted that the fundamentals of the US economy are

Markets Plunge as Coronavirus Spreads: What to Watch Next

Time to Read: 6 minutes After weeks of coronavirus news coverage and considerable handwringing, markets (finally) took a steep tumble as the fear factor intensified. With the virus spreading to more locations—making it clear that China’s quarantine efforts have fallen short—and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning Americans

The Next Recession: Bernanke’s Views on 3 Likely Causes

Time to Read: 7 Minutes In July 2019, the US economic expansion crossed the 121-month mark, stealing the crown for the longest uninterrupted stretch of post-war growth from the economic boom of the 1990s. As the expansion—now in month 127—continues to grow longer, our clients have been asking, “When will

Should Investors Worry About the New Chinese Coronavirus?

Time to Read: 4 Minutes Markets have been reintroduced to volatility after several hundred cases of a deadly new virus were first reported last week in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The respiratory illness belongs to family of viruses that contains the common cold as well as SARS and MERS. This

2020 Market Outlook Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes Central banks around the world supported the rally in equity markets in 2019. We continue to see signs of global economic recovery but expect more market volatility in 2020 than we saw in 2019. We remain slightly underweight equities and overweight on high-quality bonds

Could the Iran Crisis End the Bull Market?

Time to Read: 5 minutes General Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite military force and one of the most powerful figures in the Islamic Republic, was killed by an airstrike in Baghdad on Friday, January 3rd, 2020. The Trump administration ordered the airstrike to deter “imminent and sinister attacks

Signs of Global Recovery

Time to Read: 4 Minutes | At BWM Financial, we closely monitor global economic indicators to guide changes in client portfolios. Recently, signs of global economic recovery have emerged. A combination of much easier global monetary policy and a modest reduction in geopolitical risk (i.e., the U.S.-China trade war

Mixed Signals Webinar Recap | October 2019 Market Update

Time to Read: 3 minutes Mixed signals from some of our key indicators have caused us to remain underweight equities after cutting exposure from an overweight position last year. We will continue to focus on these key indicators to help determine what’s next for the markets. Here are our

Fed Cuts, Recessions and Stock Market Performance

Time to Read: 7 minutes In our latest webinar we discussed all the media coverage around a potential recession in the United States. In that presentation, we featured a version of the table below. which is Ned Davis Research’s (NDR's) Recession Watch Report. The table features ten key indicators

Aging Expansion Hit with Summer Volatility

Time to read: 5 minutes | The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in 10 years was supposed to be met with cheers by financial markets. Wall Street’s response to the 0.25% cut to the target Federal Funds rate on July 31 quickly turned sour. Capital markets, addicted to

2019 Mid Year Webinar Recap

Time to read: 2 minutes | A year after cutting equity exposure from an overweight position to marketweight, we are focusing on key indicators to help determine what’s next for the markets. Here are our key takeaways from BWM Financial’s Mid Year Update Webinar: The secular bull market will

The Fed to the Rescue

Time to read: 5 minutes | “Don’t fight the Fed” is one of our rules of tactical investing. This year it’s been easy to observe Federal Reserve policies directly affecting capital markets. The Fed pivot on January 5 ignited a stock-market rally that took some of the US averages,

The Trade War is Not (Yet) Over

Time to read: 7 minutes | The first half of May has been a rude awakening for investors as the U.S./China trade conflict has unexpectedly escalated. This escalation started with a weekend tweet by President Trump, followed by increased tariffs on Chinese imports that range from 10% to 25%. The

Q1 2019 Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes | After moving to an underweight position in equities for the first time since 2009, we are shifting our focus on what is next for the markets in 2019 and our portfolios. While our indicators deteriorated during the second half of 2018, our portfolios

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly – Webinar Recap

Time to read: 3 minutes |  After moving to an underweight position in equities in 2018, we are closely watching our indicators to see what is next for the markets and our portfolios. While our indicators are giving mixed signals, our portfolios remain in a defensive position despite the

Still Underweight… For Now

Time to read: 5 minutes | While capital markets have advanced off of the late December lows, few of our objective market measures indicate that the bottoming process is complete. The list of potential sources for further market gyrations is long—including slowing global economic growth, monetary and trade policy errors,