Market Commentary2019-10-25T08:09:55-08:00

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Don’t Fight the Fed | Nov 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes Federal Reserve tapering and proposed corporate tax increases have dominated headlines recently. In our latest market update, titled “Don’t Fight the Fed,” we summarize the Fed’s current position, review proposed tax changes, and consider the effect of both on the market. Here are the

Reducing Duration and Interest Rate Sensitivity in Our Tactical Portfolios

Time to Read: 9 Minutes Last week, Brown Wealth Management continued to reduce interest rate risk in our tactical portfolios by reducing duration across the board. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond to a change in interest rates. As rates move up or down, higher duration portfolios will move more in price than lower

What Can Go Wrong | Sept 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our latest market webinar, “What Could Go Wrong”, we review the current economic environment and review the conditions that could cause us to become more defensive. We are due for some level of a correction.  Routine or problematic is the question. Watching earnings

Cycle Composite Warns of Trouble Ahead: What Investors Should Know

Time to Read: 8 Minutes During our recent webinar, we discussed the Ned Davis Research (NDR) S&P 500 Cycle Composite—a unique chart that raised a lot of questions from our clients. Shown below for 2021, the cycle composite creates a roadmap for a given year in the stock market

Understanding Inflation in 2021: What You Need to Know

Time to Read: 9 Minutes As the U.S. economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 induced shutdown in 2020 amid record government stimulus from both Congress and the Federal Reserve, many high-net-worth clients are becoming more concerned about the prospects for much higher inflation in the United States.  It has been several decades since the U.S. last experienced sustained inflation. What

Summertime Market Update | July 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our Summertime Market Update we discuss the current state of the market and which indicators we are monitoring to guide our asset management decisions. Here are the key takeaways: After record recession, support and recovery, the future is less certain Buying the dip

Residential Real Estate is Looking a Bit Bubbly—Here’s Why

Time to Read: 7 minutes At BWM Financial, one of our key rules to investing is don’t fight the trend. How does this apply to today’s residential real estate market? As shown below, the trend in residential real estate has clearly been on an upward trajectory since the financial

Where Have All the Good Deals Gone? | May 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Where Have All the Good Deals Gone”, we discuss why we are maintaining our equity overweight in light of continuing economic expansion and policy support. Here are the key takeaways: US and global economy roaring back from ‘natural disaster’

Increasing Equities as Recovery Continues | March 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Equities over bonds: Increasing Equities as Recovery Continues”, we discuss why we are favoring stocks over bonds in our portfolios as the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 global pandemic.  Here are the key takeaways: Global economy

Should Investors Worry About Inflation in 2021?

Time to Read: 8 Minutes As discussed in our last webinar, we believe the recovery from the COVID-related recession continues to take hold, partially driven by the massive amount of monetary and fiscal support provided in 2020. Clients of BWM have begun asking: Will all that money printing lead

Portfolio Rotation as Election and Vaccines Shift Market Dynamics

Time to Read: 6 Minutes In our October webinar, we highlighted the potential for the election to create added volatility driven by the possibility of a contested or drawn-out process. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 6.5% the week prior to the election—its worst pre-election week

Pre-Election Positioning | October 2020 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Pre-Election Positioning”, we review where some of our key indicators stand leading into the election and what the election could mean for the markets. Here are the key takeaways: Global recession likely ended this summer, but COVID-19 spread continues

Excessive Optimism and Record Rally Trigger (Another) Portfolio Rebalance

Time to Read: 5 Minutes After March delivered a historical drop in the stock market and ended the longest bull market on record, BWM rebalanced portfolios to move from an underweight position in stocks to an equal weight, taking advantage of attractive valuations and extreme pessimism. Yesterday, we rebalanced

The Next Big Hurdle for 2020: Election Day

Time to Read: 7 Minutes 2020 has been a wild year so far—an unprecedented year, you could even say, as many memes do. And yet, another major event looms on the horizon: the presidential election, set against a backdrop of recession, global pandemic and social unrest. Here we consider

Four Key Indicators Suggest the Recession is Already Over

Time to Read: 5 Minutes Last month, BWM Financial hosted a webinar titled “Is the Recession Over?” where we examined what appeared to be signs of a bottom in economic activity and the implications for markets and the economy in a COVID-19 world. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Is The Recession Over? | June 2020 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 broke several records, including the fastest recession in the history of the US*. In our most recent webinar titled, “Is The Recession Over?”, we take a look at the key indicators we are watching to determine if the recession has

Does the S&P 500 Have the COVID-19 Antibody?

Time to Read: 7 Minutes The US unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% in April, the highest level since the Great Depression. Manufacturing activity plunged to an 11-year low. The Leading Economic Index posted the largest decline in its 60-year history. Full-year earnings estimates have tumbled downward across all sectors. While

The Recession Has Arrived—Now What?

Time to Read: 6 Minutes The economic fallout from COVID-19 continues to smash records. Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled a breathtaking 6.606 million, well above consensus estimates of 4.500 million and just barely below the record-setting 6.867 million claims recorded the week before, as shown below. Over

Fast-Moving Bear Market Triggers Portfolio Rebalancing

Time to Read: 6 Minutes Five short weeks ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs—then everything changed. As the novel coronavirus began establishing a foothold in countries around the world, US stocks entered bear market territory with record-setting speed. In this article, we look at the current