Market Commentary2019-10-25T08:09:55-08:00

MARKET COMMENTARY

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Historic Fed Hike Prompts Additional Market Volatility

Time to Read: 7 Minutes On June 15, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the key short-term interest rate by 75 basis points (bps), the largest increase since 1994. The target federal funds rate range now stands at 1.50% to 1.75%. The hike marked an abrupt departure from earlier guidance

Decoding Crypto

Time to Read: 9 Minutes We have never seen an asset class quite like cryptocurrency. It’s confusing, it’s alluring, and for some people, it’s religion. As more and more investors flock to the decentralized world of crypto, more attention is being paid by those on the sidelines.  "Am I

Cutting the Equity Exposure to Neutral

Time to Read: 3 Minutes To begin, at BWM our hearts go out to all the people worldwide affected by the events unfolding in Ukraine. It feels odd to write an article about the stock market and our objective indicators while reading about innocent lives lost due to Russia’s

Adjusting Allocations as Markets Shift

Time to Read: 6 Minutes In a recent webinar, we discussed our market outlook for 2022, including the likelihood of a correction due to the appreciable amount of time since a 10% selloff last hit the S&P 500, as shown below. Just a few days later, the S&P 500

Don’t Fight the Fed | Nov 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes Federal Reserve tapering and proposed corporate tax increases have dominated headlines recently. In our latest market update, titled “Don’t Fight the Fed,” we summarize the Fed’s current position, review proposed tax changes, and consider the effect of both on the market. Here are the

Reducing Duration and Interest Rate Sensitivity in Our Tactical Portfolios

Time to Read: 9 Minutes Last week, BWM Financial continued to reduce interest rate risk in our tactical portfolios by reducing duration across the board. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond to a change in interest rates. As rates move up or down, higher duration portfolios will move

What Can Go Wrong | Sept 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our latest market webinar, “What Could Go Wrong”, we review the current economic environment and review the conditions that could cause us to become more defensive. We are due for some level of a correction.  Routine or problematic is the question. Watching earnings

Cycle Composite Warns of Trouble Ahead: What Investors Should Know

Time to Read: 8 Minutes During our recent webinar, we discussed the Ned Davis Research (NDR) S&P 500 Cycle Composite—a unique chart that raised a lot of questions from our clients. Shown below for 2021, the cycle composite creates a roadmap for a given year in the stock market

Understanding Inflation in 2021: What You Need to Know

Time to Read: 9 Minutes As the U.S. economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 induced shutdown in 2020 amid record government stimulus from both Congress and the Federal Reserve, many high-net-worth clients are becoming more concerned about the prospects for much higher inflation in the United States.  It has been several decades since the U.S. last experienced sustained inflation. What

Summertime Market Update | July 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our Summertime Market Update we discuss the current state of the market and which indicators we are monitoring to guide our asset management decisions. Here are the key takeaways: After record recession, support and recovery, the future is less certain Buying the dip

Residential Real Estate is Looking a Bit Bubbly—Here’s Why

Time to Read: 7 minutes At BWM Financial, one of our key rules to investing is don’t fight the trend. How does this apply to today’s residential real estate market? As shown below, the trend in residential real estate has clearly been on an upward trajectory since the financial

Where Have All the Good Deals Gone? | May 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Where Have All the Good Deals Gone”, we discuss why we are maintaining our equity overweight in light of continuing economic expansion and policy support. Here are the key takeaways: US and global economy roaring back from ‘natural disaster’

Increasing Equities as Recovery Continues | March 2021 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Equities over bonds: Increasing Equities as Recovery Continues”, we discuss why we are favoring stocks over bonds in our portfolios as the world continues to recover from the COVID-19 global pandemic.  Here are the key takeaways: Global economy

Should Investors Worry About Inflation in 2021?

Time to Read: 8 Minutes As discussed in our last webinar, we believe the recovery from the COVID-related recession continues to take hold, partially driven by the massive amount of monetary and fiscal support provided in 2020. Clients of BWM have begun asking: Will all that money printing lead

Portfolio Rotation as Election and Vaccines Shift Market Dynamics

Time to Read: 6 Minutes In our October webinar, we highlighted the potential for the election to create added volatility driven by the possibility of a contested or drawn-out process. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 6.5% the week prior to the election—its worst pre-election week

Pre-Election Positioning | October 2020 Webinar Recap

Time to Read: 3 Minutes In our most recent webinar titled, “Pre-Election Positioning”, we review where some of our key indicators stand leading into the election and what the election could mean for the markets. Here are the key takeaways: Global recession likely ended this summer, but COVID-19 spread continues

Excessive Optimism and Record Rally Trigger (Another) Portfolio Rebalance

Time to Read: 5 Minutes After March delivered a historical drop in the stock market and ended the longest bull market on record, BWM rebalanced portfolios to move from an underweight position in stocks to an equal weight, taking advantage of attractive valuations and extreme pessimism. Yesterday, we rebalanced